Models are indicating snowfall across much of North Carolina in January into February, with what appears to be some significant amounts, says Phil Badgett, lead forecaster for the Raleigh bureau of the National Weather Service.

“However, we all know that the models give and they take away, right up until a full fledged winter storm — or not,” he said in a Wednesday update. “In recent years, getting the moisture to meet the cold air has been relatively not existent keeping winter storms away from North Carolina.”

Many of the winter months — December, January, and February — since 2019 have averaged above normal in temperatures, and more than not have been drier than normal, making it hard for the two to meet. “So, when there is a forecast of potential cold in the middle of winter — January into February — for more than a few days, it raises the stakes for a true North Carolina winter storm.”

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First there is the cold air. “And, models show hope after a pattern change to a deeper trough over the eastern U.S., around the first week of January, giving a temperature outlook in the 8-14 day period that … that (is) leaning colder to likely colder  than normal between January 2 through 8, 2025 for North Carolina.”  

The precipitation outlook is near normal during the January 2-8 period. 

The normal precipitation for the seven-day period in January is around .60 in central NC, near an inch in the southern mountains. “This is not forecasting wet but it is forecasting near normal moisture. The big question — will the moisture and cold air meet? We will have to closely watch the models and find out.” 

There are more forecasts that support colder than normal conditions persisting through the middle of the month, once established, he said. 

The next factor is whether the cold, dry air will overwhelm the eastern U.S. “It is possible given this precipitation outlook January 4-17. “We are leaning dry, but leaning wet just to our southeast.”  

Extending out through the next 30 days through February 8, overall the European model is bullish on colder than normal extending through the heart of winter for central NC, Badgett predicts. “The precipitation forecast from now through February 8 from the EC is near normal for central NC … It doesn't need to be wet as our region averages around 3.5 to 4 inches of precipitation during this 30-day period. It is not hard to figure out that the models such as the EC are bullish on winter storms — not just this snowfall forecast, but other precipitation types as well.”

Badgett said, “If the colder than normal conditions work out the next six weeks — the heart of winter — we will have some chances of winter storms for our region in the next six weeks. That is saying something given our recent winter history.”