The National Weather Service in Raleigh is monitoring a worsening dry spell across central North Carolina that has entered into its sixth month.

In a briefing today the NWS said the drought has intensified significantly, with extreme drought emerging in the southern Piedmont for the first time since late 2023.

Extreme drought now covers 2.13 percent of the state, specifically affecting Stanly County and areas near the South Carolina border.
Severe drought remains the dominant category, covering 65.99 percent of central North Carolina.
Moderate drought affects 30 percent of the coverage area.

In Halifax and Northampton counties, the Roanoke River is currently experiencing significantly low flows due to the ongoing drought, though it remains within its normal managed operational levels. Lake Gaston and Roanoke Rapids Lake are within its typical operations.

The lack of winter recharge —the expected seasonal replenishment of water levels — has led to critical deficits.

Water levels: Falls Lake has received only 1 percent of its median inflows for February and sits more than 3 feet below its target.

Streamflows: nearly all sites in central North Carolina river basins are reporting streamflows below the 10th percentile.

Groundwater: The Marble groundwater well has dropped below the 5th percentile for February.

Soil: While some snowmelt aided the Coastal Plain, deep soil layers remain dry, though the short-term crop moisture Index has recently stabilized near normal.
While relief is expected in the short term, the long-term outlook remains cautious:

Next week: A low-pressure system is forecast to bring 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rain statewide over the weekend.

Late February temperatures: There is a 50 to 70 percent chance of above-normal temperatures, which could worsen conditions by increasing evaporation.
Seasonal: Influenced by a La Niña phase, the forecast through April leans toward above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall, suggesting drought will likely persist or develop further.