Models are generally showing little hope for widespread rainfall the rest of this week, the lead forecaster for the National Weather Service in Raleigh said in a Sunday update.

“We really need a pattern change for much needed rainfall to get rid of the pesky upper ridge that has been persistent over our region in the past month,” said Phillip Badgett. 

Week two shows some possible relief with the Climate Prediction Center’s eight to 14-day rainfall outlook leaning above normal but only at a 33 to 40 percent chance.

Using Raleigh, Greensboro and Fayetteville as the three main seven-day climate sites, Badgett said there has been no rainfall in those areas for the past seven days.

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“In the past month — May 24 through June 23 — Greensboro and Fayetteville are most representative of central North Carolina in that they have received about 30 to 34 percent of their normal rainfall within that 30 days.”

Raleigh has been an anomaly since a thunderstorm produced 1.85 inches of rain on June 4.

And then there remain the high temperatures which are  likely to continue or worsen with a  60 percent to 70 percent chance of above normal temperatures. 

The bottom line, Badgett said, is, “Little to no rain is expected with hot temperatures this upcoming week. It will get even drier. Only isolated storms will bring local relief. The week two outlook of normal to leaning above normal rainfall shows promise. However, these upper ridges are tough to break and any relief should come from scattered thunderstorms and not a widespread soaking rain … and may lead to this forecast issued by CPC for weeks three and four — July 6 to 19 — (at) a 50-60 percent chance of below normal rainfall.”

Today's briefing

In its briefing today the National Weather Service Raleigh bureau reported a series of weak cold fronts will move across the area through the weekend, bringing short term relief in the form of lower humidity and minor rain chances.

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Wednesday, Saturday, and Sunday will be the hottest days with heat indices expected to be in the upper 90s in the northwest part of the state and 100 to 105 in the central and eastern portions.

“Sunday looks to be our best chance for widespread/area-wide showers and storms,” the NWS said.