For those with agricultural and outdoor interests and for the water resources group, there appears to be a high chance of a flash drought through much of June. 

A flash drought occurs when rainfall drops off dramatically and in some cases completely in a short period of time, leading to rapid onset or intensification of drought, according to Phillip Badgett of the National Weather Service. 

Central North Carolina has dried off in the past two weeks.

Some of the latest models including the Global Forecasting System are forecasting very dry conditions for much of central North Carolina through June 25. 

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The departures for the next two weeks will possibly exceed 2 inches. “Since we average around 2 to locally 2. 5 inches during this time frame, some areas may see no rain in the next two weeks,” he said.

After a cooler week this week it turns hot next week. 

Next week temperatures go above normal by 2 to 3 degrees. “Without rain, this will create higher evaporation rates increasing the potential for the flash drought,” Badgett said.

This is validated by the Climate Prediction Center outlook for June 17-23 which indicates a 60-70 percent chance of hotter than normal temperatures for the state.

The CPC has the odds of above normal rainfall returning  late in June or early July. But the probabilities are 50-55 percent indicating lower confidence than the heat continuing. “Bottom line,” Badgett said, “Flash drought conditions are favored and even expected through much of June. Improvements are possible by early July, but with low confidence.”